Market Reports

Manhattan’s residential real estate
market finished Q4 2024 strong, as
buyers on the sidelines re-entered
the market. Despite elevated
mortgage rates and ongoing
inventory constraints, equity
market gains and greater
acceptance of current market
conditions fueled apartment sales,
which rose by 10.6% compared to
Q4 2023. The median price
reached $2.07 million, reflecting a
2.7% year-over-year rise, a
testament to Manhattan’s enduring
appeal.
Condo sales led the way, increasing
21.5% year-over-year, with the
average price nearing $3 million—
the highest since 2018. Buyers in
this segment, typically less
impacted by mortgage rates,
favored turnkey properties and
modern amenities. Co-op sales
grew modestly by 2.8%, but the
average price declined slightly.
The ultra-luxury market stood out
favorably, as sales in the $20
million and above price point
jumped 58.3% year-over-year. This
growth was driven by robust
demand for Manhattan’s most
exclusive properties, supported by
abundant wealth creation and
transfers.
Attainable-priced units also saw
momentum, as sales of apartments
priced at $500,000 or less grew by
21.2% year-over-year, signaling that
buyers across all price points have
accepted market conditions and
are willing to transact.
Inventory continues to challenge
the market, driving heightened
competition and pricing pressures.
Levels fell 8.6% from Q3 2024 and
declined 14.3% year-over-year,
emphasizing the ongoing supplydemand imbalance. The need for
more inventory remains urgent,
but the shortfall will likely persist
for the foreseeable future.
Historical patterns suggest further
sales growth in 2025, supported by
improving buyer confidence after
the presidential election and
realizing that life cannot remain
on hold indefinitely. The data
supports this forecast, as signed
contracts jumped 6% in Q4 2024
compared to last year and will be
largely reflected in Q1 2025.
Undeniably, wealthy buyers
seeking diversification and the
fading expectation of drastically
lower rates may continue to spur
more activity at all price points.

In the third quarter, Manhattan’s
residential real estate market showed
resilience, even as the anticipation of
lower mortgage rates temporarily held
back some buyers for most of the
quarter. When mortgage rates finally
began to fall, reaching their lowest
level in 1.5 years, buyers responded
enthusiastically, positioning the market
for a solid finish to the year.
Closed sales fell to 2,694 transactions, a
minor 1.8% decline from Q3 2023. This
decline reflects the historical
slowdown ahead of a presidential
election and the widespread
expectation that mortgage rates would
fall further.
As rates began to decrease, contract
activity and open house traffic jumped,
but not to the levels we would have
liked to have seen. Contracts signed for
the quarter were down 1.8% compared
to last year and 27.6% from Q2.
The bright spot this quarter was in the
luxury market. Despite limited
inventory, the high-end segment
performed strongly, driven by stock
market gains, generational wealth
transfers, and consistent demand for
luxury new developments.
Contracts signed for homes in the $10
million—$20 million range increased
by 15.4% year-over-year, while
contracts for homes over $20 million
saw an even larger uptick, rising 16.7%.
Another notable trend was the growing
preference for condos over co-ops.
Condo contracts jumped 25.1% yearover-year, while co-op transactions fell
21.3%. This shift reflected buyers'
increasing demand for amenities and
the fewer restrictions typically
associated with co-op board approvals.
Additionally, more all-cash buyers took
advantage of the slower market, further
contributing to this trend.
Inventory decreased slightly by 0.3%
quarter over quarter, reinforcing the
ongoing challenge of limited supply.
Specifically, there were 15.4% fewer new
listings this quarter than this time last
year and a 39.1% decrease quarter over
quarter. This inventory shortage
continued to push prices upward, with
the median price increasing by 13.6%
compared to Q3 2023.
Overall, Manhattan's status as a global
destination, with lower mortgage rates,
pent-up demand, and renewed buyer
confidence, signals positive
momentum for the fall and beyond.

The Manhattan residential real estate market experienced persistent fluctuations as buyers and sellers adapted to an environment marred by low but slightly improving inventory,
elevated rates, and heightened price sensitivity.

Buyers are starting to return to Manhattan, as greater acceptance of
elevated mortgage rates and all-cash
financing drove pending sales (signed
contracts) upward, climbing by 9.3% in Q1 compared to Q4 and 1.7% year-
over-year.

An inventory shortage and higher-
than-usual rates compared to the
five-year average continued to
drive trends in Manhattan's
residential real estate market
during the fourth quarter of 2023.
Prices rose to the highest numbers
seen since 2018 both for condos
and co-ops, despite closed sales
falling 10.2% year-over-year. Most
importantly, a 7.6% increase in
contract activity this quarter
highlights positive movement as
we transition into 2024.

Manhattan maintained its status as
a coveted, global city in the third
quarter of 2023. There were 2,788
closed sales, an 11.3% increase from
last quarter, but a 23.9% decline
from the elevated activity in 2022.

The Manhattan real estate market
underwent headwinds driven by
economic uncertainty and
heightened borrowing costs that
tested the resolve of buyers and
sellers. Despite these challenges,
Manhattan remains a highly
sought-after destination,
prompting buyers and sellers to
recalibrate their expectations in
line with current market
conditions.

New York is set for a spring awakening. Contract activity jumped 14.5 percent quarter-over- quarter in Q1 as buyers and sellers increasingly decided to move on with their lives after largely waiting on the sidelines during the second half of 2022, accepting the reality of higher interest rates, sustained economic uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical challenges.