More Manhattan apartments traded in 2022 than in all but three years since 2012. This 10-year macro-level view illustrates that the market now more closely resembles pre-pandemic levels, dismissing any doomsday narratives and pointing to a continued market rebalancing after two frantic and unsustainable two years of record activity.
The latest quarterly Manhattan residential data shows resilience as the market normalizes after a hyperactive 2021. High-interest rates and record inflation deter those at more attainable price points, but buyers are willing to pay in all price categories when priced right.
Sales volume and transactions during the first six months of the year hit a record high, while transaction volume for Q2 jumped 18.6 percent. A jump in closings on new development beginning in late 2021, combined with a "buy now to save later" urgency from buyers staring down rapidly rising housing costs, propelled the record-setting first half of 2022. But declining contract activity and increasing inventory in recent months point to a second half likely to be marked by a rebalancing between buyers and sellers – reinforcing the need to work with professional agents experienced in navigating a changing tide.
For the third consecutive quarter, Manhattan sales have been on a record-setting tear as the market plays catch-up to the metro area. There were 3,504 sales in the quarter, up 35.8% year over year and 48.9% from the pre-pandemic levels. The total was the most recorded within a first quarter over thirty-three years of tracking. The same total was 33.1% higher than the 2,694 first-quarter average of the past decade and 37.3% higher than the all-quarter average of the past twenty years.
Despite the year-end acceleration of the latest COVID variant, the market rushed to catch up with the surrounding region and then some. The Manhattan housing market closed out the year on full throttle with heavy sales volume, rising prices, and sharply falling listing inventory. While the number of sales nearly doubled year over year to 3,559 for the highest fourth-quarter since total tracking began in 1989, it was 48% higher than the same period two years ago before the pandemic. Over the past decade, fourth-quarter sales averaged 2,727, 23.4%below the current quarter total.
Sales levels in Manhattan surged annually at a record rate to the highest total in more than thirty-two years, driven by rising vaccine adoption, low mortgage rates, and improving economic conditions. There were 4,523 sales in the quarter, more than triple the same period last year and 76.5% higher than the same period two years ago. Listing inventory fell sharply from the prior-year quarter but remained above the third quarter decade average. The market share of bidding wars rose to its highest level in three years. Months of supply indicated the pace of the co-op market was the fastest seen in four years. All co-op price trend indicators moved above the prior-year level and from the same period two years ago. All condo price trend indicators fell annually, sharply skewed by the drop in average sales square footage. Condo listing inventory declined from year-ago levels but was consistent with the same period two years ago. New development sales more than tripled from the prior-year quarter and nearly doubled from the same period two years ago.
Not only are second-quarter sales up sharply from year-ago levels, but the “COVID era discount” has been compressing since the beginning of the year. The number of sales surged 151.8% year over year to 3,417. However, the pandemic-related lockdown overlapped the prior-year quarter, resulted in the largest jump in sales activity since tracking the metric began in 1990. Before the pandemic, there was a 15.6% increase from the second quarter in 2019 to the current quarter. The median sales price rose 13% year over year to $1,130,000, the highest level reached since the record was set at $1,215,000 in the same quarter two years ago.
Record sales levels have been the region’s narrative, except for Manhattan, which lost more residents than the other boroughs during the pandemic due to its greater wealth and mobility. But the borough has clawed back, with demand fueled by record-low mortgage rates, greater affordability, pent-up demand, and an improved sense of safety with the acceleration of the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. As a result, first-quarter sales exceeded year-ago levels for the first time after three consecutive quarters of substantial annual declines. There were 2,457 closed sales, up 2.1% from the year-ago quarter, slightly below the 2,567 average for the first quarter over the last decade.
As your agent, Dana combines expert negotiation and market knowledge with genuine and honest communication in order to confidently guide you through the buying or selling process.