NYC's real estate market feels like it’s in a holding pattern, waiting for some sort of change. Stats have been even for the past few months, without any significant peaks or valleys, despite hitting peak real estate season - springtime. What could propel a market out of this trend? Well, aside from another financial crisis, the most plausible change could be an interest rate cut. however, The Fed is predicting only 45-50% change of a cut coming in its next meetings, on September and November. Odds are the next rate cut will only be around January of 2025.
Supply in New York City has begun to drop, with monthly new Supply coming in at 1,772 in May, down 13% from last month. We can expect lower supply weeks ahead, marking our enter into the seasonal shift of slower summer months.
Liquidity pace has been steady for the past month at 961 in May, down 7.7% from last month and 20.5% from last year - a lower than average trend.
Contracts signed activity rose 4.3% in May to 994 and has climbed over the first 2 weeks of June. This is expected and seasonal - May-June are the strongest months for our market. This number, however, is still coming in lower than the historical average of 1103. We may have just one more week of this activity before it gets quieter.
Market Pulse recovered a tad but seems to be going back down into buyer territory now. This isn't new - we have been trending in this slow market for the past 2 years:
There's one section of the market that hasn't felt the effects of this slowdown in May - the over $4M luxury market. In the past month, more buyers than a year ago were snapping up co-ops over $4 million and condos $5 million and up.
Sellers – you have about one more week to get those deals done. We are probably seeing the peak here, with the listing climate fading at an increasing rate. Rapidly moving into summer also means a more challenging listing environment; take heed and if offers come in in the next week you should strongly consider entering a contract.
Buyers, we have been under trend on contracts signed since the Fed hike – it's been a volume trap for 22 out of the past 24 months. My advice would be you shouldn’t wait for a lower rate if you find something over the summer and can afford the mortgage. Buyers can also expect to encounter real sellers this summer – whoever stays on the market coming into the end of this month and July-August instead of taking their listing off the market will be willing to transact. It’s a good sign for buyers; time is on your side despite a smaller selection of units.
